Network failure forecast

Does Reflexiveness Explain Macroeconomic Forecast Failure?

Empirical evaluations of macroeconomic forecasts confirm the common suspicion that macroeconomic forecasting faces tight limits. Can the forecasts’ failure be explained by their reflexiveness? An argument from Oskar Morgenstern against the possibility of economic forecasting seems to do so. Having reconstructed his argument, I will present two lines of attack against it. One of them consists in...

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

With the increasing number of geographically dis­ tributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency o...

Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation, and the Lucas Critique

Since forecast failure is due to unanticipated large shifts in deterministic factors, ‘sensible’ agents should adopt ‘robust forecasting rules’. Unless the model coincides with the generating mechanism, one cannot even prove that causal variables will dominate non-causal in forecasting. In such a non-stationary world, ‘rational expectations’ do not have an epistemologically-sound basis: agents ...

Artificial neural network forecast application for fine particulate matter concentration using meteorological data

Most parts of the urban areas are faced with the problem of floating fine particulate matter. Therefore, it is crucial to estimate the amounts of fine particulate matter concentrations through the urban atmosphere. In this research, an artificial neural network technique was utilized to model the PM2.5 dispersion in Tehran City. Factors which are influencing the predicted value consi...

A Comparison Between Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network Methods To Forecast GDP of Iran